The history of earthquakes in Israel
Apr 10, 2022
By: Itzick Simon in collaboration with the Standards Institute
An earthquake scenario in Israel is expected, as all experts know, and from time to time we receive a "reminder" of this in a series of minor tremors that signal to us like an alarm bell.
The Itzick Simon Insurance Agency, which has specialized in construction insurance policies for over 30 years, in collaboration with Dr. Benny Brosh, Director of the Building Division at the Standards Institute, a lecturer in structural engineering in the Department of Civil Engineering at Ariel University, and one of Israel's leading experts in the field of civil protection, decided to flood the field with information in order to bring the issue to as broad a public awareness as possible.
From the Bible to modern times
"And you fled, as you fled from the earthquake in the days of Uzziah king of Judah" (Zechariah, 14:5). We have evidence of earthquakes since the days of the Bible. Including a relatively precise date for a powerful earthquake in the 8th century BC (which is also supported by non-Biblical sources). For example, there is a known earthquake that the prophet Zechariah predicted would literally split the Mount of Olives - half to the north and half to the south. As it is said, " And the Mount of Olives split in two from the east and the west, a very great valley; and half of the mountain was northward, and half of it southward " (Zechariah, 14:4).
Josephus Flavius describes a severe earthquake in 31 BC that killed about 30,000 people. The quake was so severe that Herod asked his soldiers not to return to see the damage, as their pain might encourage the empire's rivals to invade the (literally) shattered province of Judea.
Of course, earthquakes in the Land of Israel did not only occur in ancient times and in biblical times. Anyone who visits the historical sites of Beit She'an and Susita can see for themselves the devastation caused by an earthquake in 749. Similarly, in 1033, an earthquake struck the walls of Jerusalem and its mosques, and just 30 years later, a tremor struck the central region, leaving only a couple of houses standing in the city of Ramla.
Further earthquakes occurred in the Jordan Valley in 1202 and 1546. The second was so strong that its effects caused flooding and possibly even a kind of "tsunami" on the shores of Jaffa (sources say that the sea retreated to a distance of "a day's walk").
At the end of the 18th century, between 10,000 and 40,000 people were killed in the Syria-Lebanon-Israel region following an earthquake, and in the Galilee, the "Safed Earthquake" of 1837 is remembered, which struck localities in the region (mainly Tiberias and Safed).
The first earthquake measured in Israel, measuring up to 6 on the Richter scale, occurred in 1927 and hit the central cities (Jericho, Lod, and Jerusalem). In November 1995, an earthquake struck the Gulf of Eilat with the highest measured magnitude in the region’s history – 7.3 on the Richter scale. Its damage was not severe only because the epicenter was far from the Gulf.
Is there a body that organizes earthquake preparedness?
Are we prepared for the next earthquake? Well, not exactly. A 2018 study conducted by researchers from the Hebrew University and the University of Haifa, for the National Emergency Authority (NEA), found that on the one hand there are dozens of bodies dealing with the issue, and on the other hand there is still a lack of a central body responsible for coordinating all activities [1] . The researchers concluded that the country is de facto unprepared to deal with a strong earthquake.
The study included about 47 entities in the field, about 18 of which are related and affiliated with government ministries. For example, the IDF, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Defense, the IPS, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Public Security, the Electric Company or the Government Water and Sewerage Authority, which are subordinate to the Ministry of Energy, or Magen David Adom, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Health.
The study also found that the Ministerial Committee for Earthquake Preparedness is a committee without a budget, and that it does not have the necessary manpower or implementation capabilities.
One of the important issues presented to the National Disaster Management Authority was the issue of advance preparation . Mainly in matters such as protecting infrastructure facilities or strengthening residential buildings. It is interesting to note that the researchers determined that this is not necessarily a budgeting problem, as the state invests significant amounts in the issue, but in practice, unfortunately, many of the funds are not utilized properly.
For example, the researchers believe that the state is "neglecting" the issue of preventive preparedness in the absence of a single body that is defined as responsible for this preparedness. In particular, regarding the protection of infrastructure facilities and the strengthening of residential buildings. Millions of shekels are being channeled into preventive processes but without a body that intensively leads the process with engineering expertise and risk management.
[1] https://www.calcalist.co.il/real_estate/articles/0,7340,L-3742158,00.html
Are we prepared for the next earthquake? Not quite. A study conducted in 2018 by researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the University of Haifa for the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) found that, while dozens of bodies are involved in earthquake preparedness, there is still no central body responsible for coordinating all their activities.[1] The researchers concluded that the country was, in practice, unprepared to cope with a major earthquake.
The study identified approximately 47 bodies involved in this field, around 18 of which were affiliated with government ministries. Examples include the Israel Defense Forces, under the Ministry of Defense; the Israel Prison Service, under the Ministry of Public Security; the Israel Electric Corporation and the Governmental Authority for Water and Sewerage, under the Ministry of Energy; and Magen David Adom, affiliated with the Ministry of Health.
The study also found that the ministerial committee responsible for earthquake preparedness had no budget and lacked the necessary staff and operational capabilities.
One of the key issues presented to NEMA was advance preparedness, particularly protecting infrastructure facilities and reinforcing residential buildings. Interestingly, the researchers concluded that funding was not necessarily the problem: the state allocates substantial sums to this issue, but unfortunately, much of the money is not used effectively.
For example, the researchers argued that the state was “neglecting” preventive preparedness because no single body had been assigned responsibility for it, particularly for protecting infrastructure facilities and reinforcing residential buildings. Millions of shekels are allocated to preventive measures, yet no dedicated body is driving the effort with the necessary engineering expertise and risk management capabilities.
"The main damage from earthquakes is the collapse of infrastructure and buildings," explains Dr. Brosh . "If we lived in a world of tents, an earthquake would not be such an acute and serious problem. Almost all those killed and injured in earthquakes in the world are injured by the engineering failure of buildings and infrastructure. The primary victims are from physical injuries, trips, falls as a result of buildings and their parts, and the secondary victims are from hazardous materials, fires, malfunctioning of life-saving systems, damage to medical services, infections, poisonings, and the like."
The state explicitly states this in official documents and states time and again that one of the most important means of reducing damage to life and property in an earthquake is to strengthen buildings. This includes approximately 50,000 residential buildings, approximately 3,500 public buildings, of which more than 1,500 are schools [1] .
Dr. Brosh explains that although a lot of work has been done and the state has been able to be aware and improve its preparedness, led by the National Disaster Response Force and government ministries, we must not rest on our laurels.
"Since the main danger in earthquakes is the collapse of buildings and infrastructure, the state must continue to encourage the strengthening of existing buildings and also require compliance with Israeli earthquake standards in new construction," he notes.
"The location of the Land of Israel along the Syrian-African rift geographically places it in a region prone to earthquakes, and history is not fairy tales but a practical legacy," explains Dr. Brosh . "The starting point is that the probability of an earthquake is not its occurrence but its timing and intensity. The central question is 'how much?' How prepared will we be. Seismologists believe that the frequency of an earthquake measuring 6 on the Richter scale in Israel is 1 in 80 years [2] ."
The Ministry of Construction and Housing estimates that there are approximately 810,000 apartments in Israel in buildings of three stories or more that are in clear and immediate danger. The Israel Earthquake and Tsunami Warning Center states that a powerful earthquake would cause damage to approximately 28,000 buildings to the extent of destroying at least 45% of the building. This is in addition to approximately 290,000 buildings that would be damaged by 5%-20% [3] .
[1] http://fs.knesset.gov.il/globaldocs/MMM/40f06d8d-f1f7-e411-80c8-00155d01107c/2_40f06d8d-f1f7-e411-80c8-00155d01107c_11_7602.pdf Page 2
[2] http://fs.knesset.gov.il/globaldocs/MMM/40f06d8d-f1f7-e411-80c8-00155d01107c/2_40f06d8d-f1f7-e411-80c8-00155d01107c_11_7602.pdf Page 2
[3] Ibid.
At high risk: 50,000 residential buildings and 3,500 public buildings, including more than 1,500 schools
“The main damage caused by earthquakes results from the collapse of infrastructure and buildings,” explains Dr. Brosh. “If we lived in a world of tents, earthquakes would not pose such a severe problem. Almost all deaths and injuries in earthquakes worldwide result from structural failures in buildings and infrastructure. The initial casualties suffer physical injuries from falls, impacts and being struck by buildings or their components. Secondary casualties result from hazardous materials, fires, the failure of lifesaving systems, disruption to medical services, infections, poisoning and similar consequences.”
The State explicitly acknowledges this in official documents, repeatedly identifying the strengthening of buildings as one of the most important measures for reducing earthquake casualties and property damage. This concerns approximately 50,000 residential buildings and 3,500 public buildings, including more than 1,500 schools.[1]
Dr. Brosh explains that although considerable work has been done, and the State has improved its awareness and preparedness under the leadership of the National Emergency Management Authority and government ministries, we must not rest on our laurels.
“Since the primary danger posed by earthquakes is the collapse of buildings and infrastructure, the State must continue to encourage the strengthening of existing buildings and require new construction to comply with Israeli earthquake resistance standards,” he notes.
“Israel’s location along the Syrian African Rift places it in a geographically vulnerable area for earthquakes. History is not a collection of fairy tales; it offers practical lessons,” explains Dr. Brosh. “The starting point is that the uncertainty surrounding an earthquake concerns its timing and magnitude, rather than whether it will occur. The central question is ‘How much?’ How prepared will we be? Seismologists estimate that an earthquake measuring 6 on the Richter scale occurs in Israel approximately once every 80 years.”[2]
The Ministry of Construction and Housing estimates that approximately 810,000 apartments in buildings of three or more storeys in Israel are in clear and immediate danger. The National Emergency Management Authority states that a powerful earthquake would cause damage amounting to at least approximately 45% of each building in around 28,000 buildings. A further approximately 290,000 buildings would sustain damage of between 5% and 20%.[3]
[2] Same report, page 2.
[3] Ibid.
TAMA 38, a correct solution but not enough
Lately, we have been hearing a lot about the hesitation over the continued implementation of TAMA 38 (the national outline plan for strengthening buildings against earthquakes). Despite the program's particular success, which has led to the strengthening of approximately 1,400 buildings since its launch in 2005, it is still a drop in the ocean. A little does not make up for a lot.
TAMA 38 led to the strengthening of about 13,000 apartments, but they are only about 1.7% of the apartments that have the potential to be strengthened within its framework. In addition, a huge gap has been created between the central cities and the periphery.
"Implementing the reinforcement and protection of buildings according to TAMA 38 is derived from economic motivation, and that is perfectly fine from the start. It is carried out by the private market and is based on the entrepreneurial profit from the sale of new apartments and the improvement of the properties of the tenants who already live in them. Any such reinforcement saves lives in practice," explains Dr. Brosh, "However, the mechanism is only feasible when the values of the new properties and the improvement at least cover the cost of the protection and reinforcement, which does not exist in the periphery, and sometimes not even in certain neighborhoods in central cities. The state must create inter-regional models to balance the national need with regional economic viability alone."
If we take the demand areas as an example, there is almost no relevant building in cities like Tel Aviv or Ramat Gan that has not already received a double-digit number of inquiries from developers regarding TAMA 38. The promises are always sky-high, but when the apartment owners decide to move forward, it turns out that the road to the promised land is still long.
Those in the field know that even when the homeowners and the developer manage to form a united front and overcome personal and legal disputes, there are still many situations that delay and freeze projects. Whether due to problems created by tension between the homeowners and the developer, or following the abandonment of a contractor or entanglement at the construction site.
Recently, there has been considerable debate over whether to continue implementing TAMA 38, Israel’s National Outline Plan for strengthening buildings against earthquakes. Despite the program’s modest success, with approximately 1,400 buildings strengthened since its launch in 2005, this remains a drop in the ocean, falling far short of what is needed.
TAMA 38 has led to the strengthening of approximately 13,000 apartments, representing only about 1.7% of the apartments potentially eligible under the program. A substantial gap has also emerged between cities in central Israel and outlying regions.
“Strengthening buildings and adding protective measures under TAMA 38 is driven by economic incentives, and that is perfectly legitimate. The program is implemented by the private sector and relies on developers’ profits from selling new apartments, alongside the increase in property values for existing residents. Every building strengthened this way saves lives,” explains Dr. Brosh. “However, this mechanism is viable only when the value of the new properties and the increase in existing property values cover at least the cost of the protective measures and structural strengthening. This is not the case in outlying regions, and sometimes not even in certain neighborhoods in central cities. The State must develop models that balance needs across regions, reconciling the nationwide need with economic viability at the local level.”
In areas of high demand, for example, almost every eligible building in cities such as Tel Aviv or Ramat Gan has already received at least ten approaches from developers regarding TAMA 38. The promises are always extravagant, but when apartment owners decide to proceed, they discover that the promised land is still a long way off.
Professionals in the field know that even when apartment owners and developers manage to present a united front and resolve personal and legal disagreements, numerous circumstances can still delay or bring projects to a standstill. These may arise from tensions between the owners and the developer, a contractor abandoning the project, or complications on the construction site.
In conclusion
This article briefly reviewed the history of earthquakes in the Land of Israel and how the country is coping (or struggling) with future earthquakes.
In future articles, we will delve deeper and examine the issue from additional angles.
Documents
